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| Current Market Status |
(Updated 5/7/10).
Our outlook for the coin market continues to be guardedly optimistic. The economic downturn has had a notable effect, but not to the same extent that as in other areas. Coin show results continue to be spotty, somewhat related to the location of the venue. The recent Fort Worth ANA show was the best spring ANA we've ever had, an indication of the strong Texas economy. The Central States show in Milwaukee was not nearly as strong as we expected for this normally busy show, perhaps an indication of the extent to which the auto industry controls the upper midwest economy. Our web site sales have continued to be very strong. Collectors continue to gobble up the coins. To say the least rare U. S. type material continues to be in high demand. Auction results continue to be mixed. The recent Central States auction has to be considered soft at best. As always a few lots set records, most of them in the specialized Frederick collection of bust halves. But many coins sold at surprisingly low prices. There are still bargains to be had for those who are patient.
Just a few observations that I think are driving the market:
1. The economic uncertainty is having a two-pronged effect. It seems to be driving more people toward hard assets such as coins. At the same time collectors are being much more careful about their decisions to spend money.
2. The demand for scarce and rare dates continues, driven by collectors who are part of the baby boom generation, at or near retirement and not significantly bothered by the current economic downturn.
3. Auction demand is weaker. That's apparently driven by some of the big national dealers, who normally snap up any coins that appear to be going lower than they should. These guys operate on borrowed money and are having big problems with the current liquidity crisis.
Now for the same old stuff: Many dealers are reporting mixed or poor results, but I suspect it's because their stock of rare dates is down. Collectors are filling hard-to-fill holes in their collections. Dealers who have fresh rare material do well, those carrying generic coins and investment material not so well. It's hard to put our fingers on the biggest sellers. Bust halves continue to be strong, as do Seated halves. Seated quarters have been really hot. They continue to take the prize for the coins selling farthest above any of the price guides. Collectors have realized the rarity of many dates in the series, and prices are going to multiples of the lists. It's going to take a while for the list prices to catch up with the market. Seated dollars have also been strong recently, not so much in terms of the number of coins sold but in the dollar volume. They've been our best sellers at many recent shows. Many collectors are picking up on the incredibly low mintages for this series and deciding that they're a great investment as well as a challenging series to collect. The price guides have raised the levels on bust quarters and halves significantly recently. They continue to bring strong prices, but the steady increases that we've experience the past few years have cooled off. Early type, flowing hair and draped bust, has also been very strong. Problem-free coins with eye appeal are bringing the strongest prices.
Having said all this, We don't expect to see prices escalate this year. The economic factors are having enough influence to keep a damper on any potential increases. If you're waiting for the rare dates to come back to earth it may be a long wait, but if you're patient a few bargains can be had. There are still many new collectors coming into the market who need those rare dates, so the demand isn't going to decrease. 2010 will continue to be a buying opportunity. In the long term we expect the general upward trend to continue, particularly when the inevitable inflation that the current government spending will cause kicks in in earnest. That upward trend could conceivably continue for 5-15 years. Baby boomers who collected as kids are continuing to flood into the market, and they should be coming for at least 10 more years. The higher prices are bringing out some nice coins, and the economic crisis may support that trend, but even those will dry up quickly. |
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